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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.