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China has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.