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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."